05 February 2002
America and the world: an abyss of perception
Paul Rogers
President Bush’s supremely confident state of the union speech won acclaim in the US heartland. But the rest of the world hears a different tune. There may be trouble ahead.
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As US military action continues in Afghanistan, the
interim head of state, Mr Karzai, pleads with western states to extend the
security assistance force to more of the country. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has the
capabilities to help maintain order in Kabul and the immediately surrounding
areas, but would need to be many times larger to bring any degree of stability
to the country as a whole.
To be fair to the Blair government, the UK has been
quite generous, both with its troop commitments to ISAF and its programme to
aid civil reconstruction. But few other states are making substantial
contributions. The United States, having ousted the Taliban regime, is
conspicuous by its silence and lack of support.
Meanwhile, warlordism and banditry are rife. Last
week saw a bitter fight claiming at least 50 lives, as rival warlords fought
for control of the town of Gardez in Paktia Province, just 80 miles south of
Kabul.
Refugee movements continue, mainly as a result of
people trying to get away from crime and lawlessness and aid agencies are
having continual difficulties in moving supplies out of the major towns, as
local transport routes are subject to looting and delays.
The
State of the Union, and of the world
In the longer term, the other notable recent
development was the State of the Union Address by President Bush, and its
extraordinary divergence from the attitudes in most of the rest of the world.
The Address, widely supported across most sectors of opinion in the United
States, was blunt in its message of an ongoing “war on terror”.
As US forces begin to operate in the Philippines,
and bases are consolidated across Central Asia, so the message is clear: the
United States will act wherever it thinks necessary, and has singled out Iraq,
North Korea and Iran for particular attention.
While President Bush made clear his expectation
that other allies would co-operate with the US, some of his most influential
associates have confirmed that the US is fully prepared to act alone. At an
international security conference in Germany over the weekend, Richard Perle
said that the US had “never been more willing, if necessary, to act alone.”
Earlier, and at the same conference, the US Deputy
Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, had made it clear that US military policy
was likely to be to pre-empt the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by
some states. He commented that since the 11 September attacks, “we have
acquired a visceral understanding of what terrorists can do with commercial aircraft”. He added: “We cannot afford to wait until we have acquired a
visceral understanding of what terrorists can do with weapons of mass
destruction.”
Within the Middle East, reaction to this and
similar sentiments is influenced, in part, by the knowledge that Israel has a
formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons, and may have chemical and biological
weapons as well. While Israel is seen in the United States as a close and
trusted ally, it is perceived in the region as having a government which is
more hawkish and repressive than any since the State of Israel was established
in May 1948. The consequence of this, and other regional factors, is that there
is an abyss between US perceptions of its security interests and those on the
Arab (and Persian) “street”.
Such a lack of understanding may be readily
dismissed in Washington as of little or no account, given the overwhelming
military strength of the United States and the continuing shock over the
vulnerability demonstrated by 11 September. This, though, is a dangerous
policy, not least because it is precisely the attitude that a group such as the
al-Qaida network actively wants.
Given that the 11 September attacks were so well
thought-out and planned, they demonstrated a sophisticated capability for
developing a long-term strategy. A part of that strategy was almost certainly
to induce in the US a fear of vulnerability that would ensure a very strong
military counter-reaction. This, in turn, would lead to a further anti-American
mood leading to more support for al-Qaida and allied groups.
For such groups, the State of the Union Address
must have been like a dream come true. Not only is President Bush advocating a
“war on terror” that seems to be unmistakably concentrating on the Islamic
world, but the United States is actually re-enforcing its support for Israel,
at a time when Israel’s actions against the Palestinians in the occupied
territories become progressively more rigorous.
The mood of the majority
In the longer term, it may be even more significant
to examine the attitudes of opinion formers beyond the Middle East, in the
“majority world” of the South. Here, whether in the views of independent
analysts or the private opinions of government officials, there is also a radically
different approach to that in Washington.
It was expressed early on, in a perceptive comment
on 11 September, written soon after the attacks by Walden Bello of the
University of the Philippines. A paper on “The Never Ending War”, published by
one of the most original and stimulating South NGOs, Focus on the Global South, condemned the
attacks as horrific, despicable and unpardonable, but cautioned against an
automatic “iron fist” response that ignored the underlying context.
Bello pointed to the frequent use of indiscriminate
force by the US, not least in Vietnam, and to the bitter mood throughout much
of the Middle East and South West Asia, directed partly at the United States
because of its perceived dominance of the region but also against autocratic
states dependent on continuing US support.
The analysis concluded:
The only response that
will really contribute to global security and peace is for Washington to
address not the symptoms but the roots of terrorism. It is for the United
States to re-examine and substantially change its policies in the Middle East
and the Third World, supporting for a change arrangements that will not stand
in the way of the achievement of equity, justice and genuine national
sovereignty for currently marginalized peoples. Any other way leads to endless
war.
A more recent report from the South Centre in
Geneva, sums up the mood among many Southern
opinion formers. The “war against terror” is seen in the context of a widely perceived
Northern dominance of the international financial institutions, the tardy and
thoroughly limited progress on debt relief, the general decline in aid budgets
and a resolute opposition to trade reforms geared specifically to encourage
Southern development.
Increasing numbers in the
South perceive the evolving situation as no less than modern imperialism, using
the full panoply of mechanisms to bend the will and shape the global order to
suit the preference and need of the major advanced industrial nations.
Moreover, this new imperialism is largely unhindered, in fact it is even aided
and abetted, by the multilateral mechanisms developed over the past five
decades.
Growing resentment in the
South at the sense of powerlessness in the face of Northern arrogance and
impunity breeds frustration, which hardly provides fertile ground for
development or peace or building the international community. Now, the fear of
speaking up in defence of one’s own interests has been further exacerbated by
the new dictum “You are either with us or against us”.
These are two of many examples of attitudes across
the majority world that could be drawn from newspaper editorials, magazine
articles or radio and TV discussions, yet would go unrecognised in the current
mood in Washington. The US sees the legitimacy of a “war on terror” born of the
shock of its own vulnerability. Much of the rest of the world sees it as a
further example of the control of the international system by an elite
minority.
The contrast is fundamental and may lead to an
international dynamic that is deeply unstable. In between lies some independent
analysis in the United States, and a much stronger current of concern within
Europe. That concern is expressed more openly in countries such as France and Italy
rather than Britain.
Tony Blair sees Britain as playing a bridging role
between the United States and Europe on this and other issues. This is a view
that is hardly shared in Europe, where the UK is seen perhaps more as a Trojan
Horse rather than a bridge, but, in any case, Britain is not hugely significant
in the wider scheme of things.
A difference of outlook on international security
between the US and Europe is a matter of concern, but it is far less important
than the wholesale fracturing between current US attitudes and those of the
majority world. Perhaps what is really important in the coming months is for
Europe to play a bridging role between the United States and the rest of the
world.
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Copyright © Paul Rogers, 2002. Published by openDemocracy.
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Paul Rogers> is Professor of Peace Studies at
Bradford University, where he teaches courses on international security, arms
control and political violence. He has published 15 books; his most recent is
Losing Control – Global Security in the 21st Century. A regular lecturer and
broadcaster, he is writing a weekly column for openDemocracy on the war.
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