05 June 2002
Israel : the illusions of militarism
Paul Rogers
The image of Israeli military strength is misleading. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are ill-equipped to defeat the Palestinians. As a result, the IDF is being forced to change its tactics and political plans. As some Palestinian militants begin to target Israel’s economic infrastructure, the illusion of a military solution to the Middle East conflict may become even more dangerous. (long)
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Any independent assessment of the Israeli armed
forces would initially conclude that they are remarkably strong, that they are
supported by an unusually large defence expenditure, and that Israel should be
able to defend itself against any likely threat. With a Jewish population of
just over 5 million and a GDP of $99 billion, Israel spends about 10 per cent
of its GDP on defence. Contrast this with Britain, with a population of nearly
60 million and a GDP of $1,400 billion, spending barely 2.5 per cent of its GDP
on defence.
Israel’s armed forces are almost as large
as those of Britain, and its reserve forces are twice as large as Britain’s
total regular forces. It maintains nearly 4,000 tanks, compared with 600 for
Britain, it has the most powerful air force in the Middle East and it is a
nuclear power with at least 100 nuclear warheads that can be delivered by
aircraft or by the Jericho missile.
Israel’s armed forces have traditionally been
geared towards rapid manoeuvre warfare against neighbouring Arab states, with
an air force capable of providing high levels of air defence combined with
long-range strikes. This latter capability is being upgraded with the
deployment of advanced F-15I and F-16I strike aircraft from the United States.
Israel is also deploying its own anti-ballistic missile system, the Arrow,
developed in close association with US aerospace companies.
In several wars with neighbouring states, Israel’s
armed forces have proved themselves to be both competent and effective, but not
on all occasions. Operation Peace for Galilee, the
invasion of Lebanon and the siege of Beirut in 1982, resulted in a huge loss of
life among Palestinians and Lebanese, certainly over 10,000 people killed in a
matter of months. But it also led to an occupation of much of Lebanon that was
largely abandoned after three years in the face of guerrilla warfare from
Hezbollah militia.
Then, as in more recent years, the Israeli army
faced a war of attrition that continued in the face of its own use of massive
firepower. In the first intifada at the end of the 1980s, Israel found
that many in its conscript army reacted negatively to the use of the army as a
vigorous instrument of public order control in the occupied territories.
All this serves as a context for the problems that
Israel now faces in maintaining its own security, problems that are more
intractable than most analysts would contend. During April 2002, the Sharon
government embarked on a wide-ranging offensive military operation in the West
Bank. The stated purpose was to defeat the suicide bombers and to reduce Yassir
Arafat to an irrelevance. But it was also apparent that a key aim was to
destroy substantial parts of the infrastructure of the Palestinian Authority
(PA).
Much of the latter was accomplished, to the obvious
displeasure of several European states that had been aiding the PA, but Arafat
survived his detention and appeared to emerge with a greater standing. In
addition, it is painfully obvious to the Israeli public that the military
operations have singularly failed to halt the wave of suicide bombings.
Moreover, Israel has lost substantial international
support outside the Middle East, especially in Europe, with much of this
stemming from its operations in Nablus, Jenin and Bethlehem. In the Middle East
itself, Israeli military operations have been extensively reported, not least
on the satellite news channels, and this has produced a mood of bitterness
directed towards Israel and its putative champion, the United States.
In the United States itself, though, support for
Israel remains strong. A perception has gathered strength that the Israeli
domestic experience of suicide bombings is much akin to the devastating attacks
on New York and Washington last September. Furthermore, these bombings have
resulted in continuing domestic support for the Sharon government, with its
only possible replacement, a coalition headed by Binyamin Netanyahu, likely to
be even more hardline.
The IDF:
fighting the wrong war?
In the recent military operations, it has become
apparent to strategists within Israel that, for many years, the IDF has been
planning for the wrong war. This may seem an extraordinary statement but it has
to be appreciated that the IDF made minimal incursions into Hebron, one of the
key cities of Palestinian resistance on the West Bank. It has also limited its operations
into the densely packed refugee camps of Gaza to occasional forays.
The IDF experienced unusually heavy losses in the
bitter fighting in Jenin, yet the refugee camp there was one of the smallest in
the region. Moreover, the destruction brought about by the IDF operations
caused an international outcry.
The reality is that Israel has concentrated for
years on defence plans that are based on protection from external attack,
whether it be from guerrilla groups in Lebanon or so-called “second and third
ring opponents” such as Iraq and particularly Iran. These plans have entailed
intelligence gathering, extensive air defences, long-range strike aircraft and
a highly manouevrable army. What the IDF has not done is to concentrate on
urban warfare.
Again, it may seem far-fetched even to suggest that
the IDF has vulnerabilities. After all, it is extraordinarily strong and well
equipped, and it has been facing poorly armed irregulars and militias in the
occupied territories that are controlled by innumerable checkpoints and
strategic roads. On the face of it, to talk of IDF limitations seems to be
nonsense.
Perhaps so, but it is already painfully obvious
that the use of massive firepower inevitably kills many people, and even the
strongest forms of media control cannot prevent the images of destruction being
spread across the region. It is also obvious that Palestinians remain resilient
in the face of severe economic hardship, let alone deaths and injuries, and the
suicide bombings continue.
The military operations in April have already
displayed a wide range of limitations. The IDF faces an urgent need for more
helicopters and unmanned aircraft, together with all-weather precision-guided
weapons. It has relatively few troops trained in urban counter-insurgency, one
of the most difficult military activities of all. The IDF is also deeply
reluctant to commit ordinary infantry to such operations, especially when it is
facing determined Palestinian guerrilla groups who have little to lose and may
even be prepared for suicidal defensive tactics.
The IDF are perfectly capable of using overwhelming
firepower against presumed centres of guerrilla activity. This was a method
used repeatedly in Beirut in 1982, leading to many thousands of deaths.
However, in the occupied territories, this is not possible, given the
international outrage that would follow.
As a result, the IDF is urgently seeking the
technologies and weapons to engage in the policy of precision strikes in dense
urban environments. To put it bluntly, it does not have adequate forces for
such action. Three examples illustrate its limitations. Israel has long had a
policy of developing small drones for intelligence gathering. These unmanned
aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used extensively in recent weeks, but they are
unarmed, unlike some of the US drones used in Afghanistan. The Israeli UAVs may
identify a guerrilla group as a target, but by the time a helicopter or strike
aircraft is brought in to attack it, the group has disappeared.
Another example is the type of weapon with which
the helicopters are equipped. This is typically a missile designed for
anti-tank warfare in open country, rather than for use in dense urban
environments. The IDF also has a shortage of all-weather precision-guided weapons,
so there are many periods when it may not have the ability to attack given
targets.
Israel’s
change of tactics
More than two months after the military operations
started, it is worth reflecting that they have not been extended to the
heartlands of opposition in the occupied territories. There have been brief
incursions into towns and cities, such as Jenin and Nablus, in response to
further suicide attacks, but Hebron and Gaza remain outside the full field of
operations.
What, then, will be the approach of the Sharon
government? One point to recognise is that, if there are any major incidents in
Israel leading to heavy loss of life, then the IDF will be ordered into cities
such as Hebron and Gaza, whatever the difficulties and international
consequences.
That apart though, there are two developments
currently under way. One development is to re-equip and retrain elements of the
IDF to make them more effective in urban counter-insurgency. This would involve
a much heavier concentration on “remote” offensive action involving UAVs and
helicopter gunships. However effective this would be, there is no doubt that
future military operations will inevitably lead to many more Palestinians being
killed, with the inevitable regional and wider international reactions.
The second development is an extraordinary
tightening up of security throughout the occupied territories. The extent of
this is only now beginning to appear in the western media, but it far exceeds
most of the limitations of the past. Basically, it is a plan to encircle and
isolate the eight major towns and cities of the West Bank. These include
Ramallah, Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilya and Hebron, and even Bethlehem, with
its proximity to Jerusalem, and Jericho, down in the Jordan Valley and away from
most of the areas of conflict.
According to the plan, residents of each encircled
urban area will not be allowed to travel outside these areas without an IDF
permit, valid for a month at a time and limited to daytime only. This will, in
effect, create a permanent curfew outside the cities and towns. Furthermore,
any goods entering or leaving these controlled areas will have to be unloaded
on one side of a checkpoint and reloaded on to other trucks across the
checkpoint. In addition, no one with Palestinian papers will be allowed into
Israel itself, and this is even to include East Jerusalem, the base of many of
the aid agencies working with Palestinian communities.
These stringent measures are being introduced,
according to Israeli sources, to counter suicide bombings and other tactics,
but they are creating a form of apartheid that Palestinians claim is every bit
as repressive as the South African pass laws. Furthermore, they are likely to
fundamentally damage the Palestinian economy, already in deep recession with
rampant unemployment, shortages of many supplies, and 500,000 people requiring
international food aid.
The
Israeli economy as a target?
Israel anticipates that the combination of these
severe new security measures along with changing IDF tactics will enable it to
control the Palestinian intifada. But past experience suggests the
opposite. What appears much more likely is that the harsh Israeli security
policies will do much to strengthen the position of the more radical
Palestinian militia groups, leading to more bombings within Israel.
However much the IDF tries to control the occupied
territories, it cannot close them off from Israel altogether, not least because
of the extensive network of Jewish settlements that stretches across the West
Bank. Israeli territory therefore remains vulnerable, and more attacks will
ensue, motivated by the desperation of many Palestinians.
Given the current make-up of the Israeli
government, and with Netanyahu seeking his opportunity, there is little
likelihood of a change of policy. Moreover, the effects of the suicide bombings
are so traumatic within Israeli society that they lead to more support for the
government and an even greater desire for harsher military responses. For the
radical Palestinian groups, this is precisely what is intended, as they seek a
greater confrontation. But for most Palestinians, it makes their predicament
even worse.
In all of this, there is a missing element in the
analysis, the possibility that groups among the Palestinian militia may be
developing a new tactic, of targeting the Israeli economy rather than its
people. Over the past eighteen months, Palestinian paramilitary actions have
involved three components: direct conflict with IDF units, attacks on settlers,
and suicide attacks in Israeli cities. Rarely have there been any attempts to
target the Israeli economy directly, although the impact on tourism, a
significant part of the economy, has certainly been substantial, if indirect.
This may well have changed on 23 May. On that day,
while most attention was focused on the aftermath of a suicide bombing at
Rishon Letzion on the previous night and the Israeli killing of three
Palestinian militants in Nablus, a bomb was detonated by remote control under a
fuel truck parked at Israel’s largest fuel depot at Herzliya near Tel Aviv. The
truck was parked close to a large fuel storage tank and the bomb set fire to
the truck, but the resultant blaze was extinguished before it spread to other
parts of the depot.
No single group was immediately identified as
responsible. The attack came shortly after Israeli security officials were said
to have uncovered a plan to blow up the Azriel Towers in Tel Aviv, the tallest
buildings in Israel.
Global precedents
The significance of these developments may be
substantial if it indicates that Palestinian paramilitaries are starting to
develop a new tactic. While this may be new as far as the Palestinian/Israeli
confrontation is concerned, it is certainly not new in terms of paramilitary
actions elsewhere in the world.
From 1992 to 1997, the Provisional IRA (PIRA)
engaged in a series of economic targeting campaigns in Britain, including three
massive bombs in London, another in Manchester, frequent and highly disruptive
attacks on road and rail communications, and even attempts to disrupt
electricity, gas and oil supplies.
The attacks on the central business district of
London caused huge consternation at a time when London was competing with
Frankfurt as the financial centre of Western Europe. While successive
governments persistently denied that the PIRA campaign was a source of concern,
there were many indications to the contrary, even to the extent of a much
greater commitment to a peace settlement in Northern Ireland.
Many other paramilitary groups have used economic
targeting and, in some cases, it has had a pronounced political effect, not
least in Sri Lanka where the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) have targeted business
centres, Colombo Airport, oil facilities and electricity supply lines.
What may now be starting to happen in Israel is the
recognition by some Palestinian paramilitaries that such methods may be more
effective in their impact on the Israeli mood than the suicide bombs in cafes,
markets and bars. If this is so, then the bombing attempt on the fuel depot
near Tel Aviv may prove to have a considerable long-term significance.
Moreover, if Palestinian paramilitaries seek to
combine suicide bombing with the use of truck bombs, then the consequences
could be extreme, as events in Sri Lanka in the mid-1990s demonstrate.
Late in 1995, the Sri Lankan army launched a
massive assault on the LTTE, taking its northern stronghold of Jaffna. It was a
hollow victory since the LTTE forces melted away and resorted to a devastating
response in the heart of Colombo. On 31 January 1996, just seven weeks after
the fall of Jaffna, a suicide bomber drove a truck packed with explosives up to
the entrance to the Central Bank, in the heart of Colombo’s central business
district.
The massive bomb killed nearly 100 people and
injured 1,400. Many key buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, including
the bank itself, the Celinko Insurance Building, the Colombo World Trade
Center, the Air Lanka offices, the Bank of Ceylon, the Ceylon Hotels
Corporation Building and several hotels. The bombing had a considerable impact
on business confidence, a problem reinforced by a further attack on the Colombo
World Trade Center two years later.
For the Israeli security authorities, their current
policies of increasing control over the Palestinian population, coupled with
revised military tactics, may give them the impression that they are in a
position to maintain control. It is at least as likely that they may be facing
quite different forms of attack.
If so, then the consequences could be extreme,
confirming the belief of some security analysts that there is no alternative to
a negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinians, not least because the
potential for greater violence is much more substantial than is commonly
recognised.
Copyright © Paul Rogers, 2002. Published by openDemocracy.
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Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford
University, is openDemocracy’s international security correspondent. The second edition of his book Losing Control – Global Security in the 21st Century will be
published in June 2002.
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